New Research Pinpoints Risk for Psychotic Disorders

Teens who display a combination of symptoms such as paranoia and social withdrawal have a 68 to 80 percent chance of developing a psychotic disorder such as schizophrenia, reports a government-funded study released yesterday. This research aims at helping doctors better identify young patients who are at high risk for developing psychotic disorders, which strike approximately one percent of adults and most commonly develop in the late teens or early twenties.

Risk factors included a family history of psychosis accompanied with a recent decline in functioning, increased paranoia or suspicion, "unusual thoughts" (such as believing strangers are talking about them), declines in social functioning and past or current drug abuse. Teens who exhibited even one of these symptoms were found to be at a 35 percent risk for developing psychosis.

The study, which examined 291 youth (median age 16) with these risk factors and 134 individuals without any risk factors for 30 months, found the progression to a psychotic disorder occurred quickly: Twenty-two percent of subjects with risk factors developed a psychotic disorder within one year, another 11 percent within two years, and an additional three percent within two and a half years. Meanwhile no subjects from the healthy group developed a psychotic disorder.

Findings suggest the initial two and a half years following symptom diagnosis is a critical period for evaluation. Researchers, who conducted the study as part of the ongoing North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study, now seek to determine whether early intervention is beneficial to individuals at high risk for psychotic disorders.

ABSTRACT: Prediction of Psychosis in Youth at High Clinical Risk